Predicting Shifts in the Local Real Estate Market

Kendall_NC_HomeSales_HousingInventory_June2017

One of the best ways to predict shifts in the local real estate market is through the fluctuations in housing inventory or the supply of homes for sales.  Northern Colorado’s three largest submarkets are moving in three different directions.

Loveland-Berthoud area, availability of detached homes for sale was up 12.5 percent in May compared with May 2016. Loveland-Berthoud market has experienced a 12 percent increase in home sales through the first five months of 2017.

Greeley-Evans area inventory is down 46 percent for detached houses and 44 percent for attached units.

Fort Collins-Wellington-Timnath area, where total inventory is essentially flat, down just 1.1 percent from the previous year. Total sales are up slightly at 2.3 percent.

We are beginning to see a rebalancing of supply and demand in the Loveland-Berthoud area, which is a healthy long-term trend.  Fort Collins will be next to move in that direction. Greeley, on the other hand, diminishing inventory indicates a strong seller’s market for the near future.

These inventory trends also confirm that where inventory exists in Northern Colorado, sales will follow. And just because sales are slipping, with Greeley as an example, it doesn’t mean the market is faltering. This demonstrates a very simple fact:  People can’t buy homes unless there are homes to buy.  Supply is driving home sales, a very unusual market dynamic.

High demand for housing is why housing prices continue to increase, with the average May sales price across the region  reaching $357,164, up 8 percent. Each of the six submarkets reported climbing prices. Here’s a closer look:

Fort Collins-Wellington-Timnath $388,707, up 5.8%

Greeley-Evans $269,055 up 8.7%

Loveland-Berthoud $366,315 up 5.8%

Windsor-Severance $417,312 up 4.5%

Estes Park $441,809 up 15.6%

Ault-Eaton-Johnstown-Kersey-LaSalle-Mead-Milliken $327,361, up 4.6%

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Source of Info from Larry Kendall co-founded associate-owned The Group Inc. Real Estate